Turkey has
over the past few weeks become the spearhead of a joint
Western-Arab-Turkish policy aimed at forcing President Bashar al-Assad
to cede power in Syria. This is quite a turnaround in Turkish policy,
because over the past two years the government of Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan had gone out of its way to cultivate good relations with
neighboring Syria, with whom it shares a long land border.
This change of course on Syria has also cost Turkey a great deal in
terms of its relations with Iran, the principal supporter of Assad’s
regime, which Turkey had also cultivated as part of Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy.
Given these new strains, it is worth recalling that a only few months
ago many American leaders were livid at what they perceived to be
Turkey’s betrayal. In their view, Turkey had re-oriented its foreign
policy toward the Muslim Middle East and away from the West – a shift
supposedly reflected in the country’s deteriorating relations with
Israel and improving ties with Iran and Syria.
Many American policymakers and publicists, unable or unwilling to
distinguish Turkish-Israeli relations from Turkish-American relations,
interpreted Erdogan’s condemnation of Israel’s blockade of Gaza as a bid
to cozy up to his Arab neighbors at the expense of Turkey’s relations
with not only Israel but with the West in general. Turkey’s attempt to
mediate between the major Western powers and Iran concerning the Islamic
Republic’s uranium stockpile went unappreciated in the West; indeed,
the United States scuttled the effort just as it seemed to be bearing
fruit. And Turkey’s subsequent vote in the United Nations Security
Council against imposing additional sanctions on Iran seemed to offer
further proof that Turkey had adopted an “Islamic” foreign policy.
America’s anxiety assumed that it is a contradiction for Turkey to
seek good relations with both the West and the Muslim Middle East, and
that Ankara’s decision to improve its relations with its Muslim
neighbors was motivated primarily by religious and ideological concerns
considered important by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Turkey’s recent tense relations with Iran demonstrate this assumption’s
basic fallacy, and point to a non-ideological foreign policy that caters
to Turkish national interests as defined by the country’s political
elite – including the post-Islamists in power today.
Disagreement between Turkey and Iran initially centered on their
conflicting approaches to the internal rebellion against Assad’s
dictatorship. Iran has been heavily invested in the Assad regime, its
lone Arab ally and the main conduit for delivering material support to
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Turkey, on the other hand, after some initial
hesitation, has thrown its weight fully behind Assad’s opponents,
including by providing refuge to them, as well as to defectors from
Syria’s army. Indeed, Turkey has gone further by helping the divided
Syrian opposition to come together on its territory to establish a joint
front against the Assad regime and provide a credible alternative to
it.
Turkey abruptly shifted its stance on Syria, and aligned its position
with that of the major Western powers, for two reasons. First, the
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) could not afford to be seen
as opposing democracy in Syria, given that its own legitimacy rests
heavily on its democratic credentials. Second, once Erdogan’s government
concluded that Assad’s regime was bound to fall, it sought to secure
its future interests in Syria, which is of strategic importance to
Turkey – even at the cost of jeopardizing relations with Iran.
Iran’s displeasure at Turkey’s “betrayal” of Assad was compounded by
the Erdogan government’s recent decision to install a NATO anti-missile
early-warning facility – aimed at tracking Iranian missile activity – in
Malatya in eastern Turkey. According to Iranian authorities, NATO’s
system is designed to neutralize Iran’s deterrent capacity vis-à-vis
Israel, thereby increasing the likelihood of an Israeli or US strike
against Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranian officials went so far as to
warn Turkey that it would make the Malatya facility its first target in
retaliation for a Western strike on Iran.
In reality, Israel can track Iranian missile activity from several
sites other than Malatya. Iran’s threat, therefore, is an expression
more of discontent with Turkey than of genuine concern that the Malatya
facility will adversely affect its deterrent capacity.
Iranian-Turkish tensions reflect three larger realities. First, the
Arab Spring, and especially the Syrian uprising, exposed the two sides’
underlying rivalry for influence in the Middle East and the Arab world.
Second, Turkey’s turn toward the east is not ideologically or
religiously inspired, but instead is based on solid strategic and
economic calculations; as the fluid situation in the Middle East
continues to develop, Turkey will adapt its policies accordingly.
Finally, Turkey has invested far too much in its strategic relations
with NATO, and with the US in particular, to fritter them away in
exchange for uncertain gains in relations with Iran.
This does not mean that Turkey will return to its traditional
strategic dependence on the US and its allies, an approach that defined
Turkish foreign policy throughout the Cold War and the decade following
it. The AKP government is committed to the country’s strategic autonomy
and to greater activism in the Middle East. But it is also aware that
such policies must not cost Turkey its relationship with NATO and the
US.
Turkey is engaged in an intricate effort to preserve its old
relationship with the West while building new ties with its Muslim
neighbors. Turkey’s leaders understand that the country can best
preserve and enhance its leverage with both sides by maintaining good
relations with each.